NEW POLLING by the Daily Telegraph suggests that Wokingham would be one of the seats the Conservatives would lose in the next general election.
The newspaper commissioned YouGov to carry out one of the most comprehensive studies of how people would vote.
Nationally, it suggests the Conservatives would lose 196 seats, and Labour gain 183, switching control of the government for the first time since 2010.
The poll also suggest the Lib Dems would gain 37 seats, while the SNP would lose 25.
Eleven cabinet ministers could lose their seats in what would be the biggest decline in a party’s fortunes since 1906 – beating the 1945 post-war election that led to a Labour government and the creation of the NHS.
The newspaper has released a postcode checker so readers can see how their constituencies would vote, and this has been arranged for the new boundaries, the first time they have been contested.
If the poll was accurate, it would see Sir John Redwood become the first Conservative to lose a general election in Wokingham. The seat has always been blue regardless of its boundaries.
The new Earley and Woodley seat would be a Labour gain, Reading Central would be a Labour hold, and the Conservatives would be expected to hold the Reading West and Mid Berkshire seat.
While the Lib Dems and Greens have announced their candidate for this seat, the Conservatives have yet to select a successor to Sir Alok Sharma.
Wokingham is currently a fight between Sir John and Lib Dem challenger Clive Jones, Reform UK has selected Colin Wright but the other parties have yet to declare their candidates.
The Telegraph predicts the Lib Dems will poll 37%, Conservatives 31%, Labour 18%, Reform 7% and Green 5%.
In Earley and Woodley, Conservative candidate Pauline Jorgensen had 31% to Labour’s Yuan Yang on 35%. The Lib Dems polled 19%, Reform 7% and the Greens 6%.
Reading Central would see Labour have 51% of the vote, the Conservatives 23%, Greens 10%, Lib Dems 8%, and Reform on 7%.
It is closer in Reading West and Mid Berkshire: the Conservatives polled 35% to Labour’s 31%. The Lib Dems are third on 17%, Reform on 9%, Greens on 7% and other, which would include the independent candidate, on 2%.
The Lib Dems have continued to campaign in Wokingham, and last week welcomed the 1987 general election candidate John Leston to the constituency to pass on his tips to Mr Jones.
It was Sir John’s first election, and Mr Leston was a member of the then Liberal/Alliance party.
“I stood against John Redwood all those years ago because I thought his values were wrong for the country and wrong for Wokingham. My view hasn’t changed,” he said in a statement.
“I’m determined that we’ll see the first ever Liberal Democrat MP for Wokingham elected at the next general election, whenever it comes in 2024.
“On my two visits to Wokingham in the last few weeks, it looks to me like Clive can win. I spoke to some lifelong Conservative voters who say they can no longer support the party and will support Clive. Also, some Green and Labour party supporters who know voting for Clive is the best way to see the back of the Conservative government.”
He promised: “I will be back as often as I possibly can to help Clive, and I hope local people who want to see change like I do, will help Clive where they can. It’s a really exciting campaign to be part of.”
In the 2019 general election campaign, Sir John declined to make statements on opinion polls, instead saying: “I am happy to talk about what I have done and wish to do if re-elected. I am putting out plenty of material on johnredwood.com.”
As Labour and the Greens have yet to select a candidate, they have not been approached for a comment.
