A WORLD Health Organisation professor from Wokingham borough has predicted as many as 8,000 to 10,000 new Covid-19 cases each day in the UK soon.
Last Sunday’s figure, 2,988, was the highest since May. Professor Ben Cowling, who studies disease spread, expects UK pubs and bars will be closed “fairly soon” as Covid-19 cases resurge.
His work on virus superspreading in Hong Kong bars and restaurants is soon to be published in a medical journal.
Prof Cowling, an epidemiologist, who went to Sonning Primary School and Reading School, said: “A lot of Covid-19 transmission has occurred indoors in crowded areas like pubs and bars, and I would expect those venues to be closed fairly soon as Covid-19 case numbers resurge in the UK.”
Although outdoor seating could mean venues can stay open for longer.
He added: “I’d expect to see increases in daily case numbers over the next few weeks, perhaps 5,000 per day next week and as many as 8,000 to 10,000 per day the week after that.
“If swift action is taken now, the rise in cases might be blunted by the end of the month but it is going to be a tough autumn.”
On Tuesday there were 32 new UK deaths and 2,460 new cases.
In early February, with just two UK cases then, he told Wokingham.Today a UK epidemic would start by early March. He was proved right.
This week he said people were feeling fatigue with social distancing measures after the past six months.
“But social distancing measures are the only measures that are good enough to stop COVID from spreading,” he said.
Face masks and test and trace helped, he said, but strengthening of social distancing measures would be inevitable.
Professor Cowling, whose family still live in Sonning, is co-director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease at Hong Kong University.
He added: “Unchecked Covid-19 would lead to infections in vulnerable older adults and increases in deaths.
“Hopefully we have learnt from experiences back in March and are better prepared to protect homes [for the elderly] against Covid-19.”
Although hopes have been pinned on a vaccine, a trial has been paused after patient side effects were noticed.
“Once a safe and effective vaccine is available, we should start to see life getting gradually back to normal, although it may take years before we are back to 2019 normal,” he added.
Asked whether we will be able to hug each other at Christmas beyond our bubble, Prof Cowling said: “Difficult to say, I hope so.”
Asked for a response to his comments, the Department of Health referred to statements on Monday.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: “We are concerned about this rise in cases. It’s predominantly among younger people, but of course younger people can pass on this disease to their grandparents and we don’t want to see that.
“We have seen a rise in cases in other countries around the world, across Europe.
“It’s often first among younger people and then they pass it onto others. It’s so important everybody follows the social distancing.”
England’s deputy chief medical officer Professor Johnathan Van Tam said that the recent cases figures were a big change.
“It’s of great concern at this point,” he said. “This is a virus we are going to have to live with.
“If we are not careful, if we don’t take this incredibly seriously from this point in we are going to have a bumpy ride over the next few months.
“People have relaxed too much. Now is the time to re-engage and realise this is a continuing threat to us.”
In Bolton, where there’s been a significant rise in cases, food and drink venues are now takeaway only.
And Caerphilly was placed under a local lockdown on Tuesday night.
Nationally, there is a shortage of Covid-19 testing capability and Wokingham Borough Council is lobbying the Government for more local sites.
With demand currently exceeding supply, residents are asked to call NHS 111 if they have Covid symptoms and seek advice before requesting a test.
Cllr Charles Margetts, executive member for adult social care at the borough council, said: “This is a national issue that is impacting people across the country – but we need to act in the interests of our residents and that is why we are calling on Central Government to ensure everybody who needs a test in the borough can get one.
“We have written to our local MPs and raised this issue through all the appropriate channels and will continue to do so until it is resolved.”
Public Health teams say some of the increase in demand is from people seeking tests when they do not need to.
Meradin Peachey, acting director of Public Health Berkshire, said: “We understand that there are national constraints in the processing of test results which is limiting the availability of tests locally.
“The testing system is prioritising areas of the country where there are higher levels of Covid infections.
“Berkshire has lower case numbers than elsewhere in the country and in the last week over 97% tests in Berkshire residents were negative.”
Last Monday, there were 20 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the borough.
Cllr Margetts added: “I understand the desire to get tested ‘just in case’ or if you are self-isolating, but the truth is that is not helpful to you or our wider community.
“We need to push for more testing capacity locally, but we also need to be responsible in our use of that capacity, so I am urging residents to keep following the rules – as we have done so far — and leave tests to those who really need them.”
Anyone who has symptoms of Covid-19 should isolate and seek a test by phoning 119 or booking online.
Symptoms include a fever, a continuous cough and loss of taste or smell.
Residents identified as a contact of a case should isolate for 14 days to covers the incubation and infectious periods of the virus. They do not need a test unless they have symptoms.
But anyone who is tested negative must also self-isolate for the 14-day period. This also applies returning from overseas.
