A NEW survey has predicted Labour would win the proposed new seat of Earley and Woodley, if boundary changes are implemented before the next general election.
The seat changes are aimed at making constitutencies more representative of the communities they serve. Electoral Calculus looked at the new seats and projected the share of the vote.
Under the proposals, there would be nine seats in Berkshire, and the Conservatives would hold six of them: Wokingham, Bracknell, Windsor, Maidenhead, Newbury and Berkshire Mid.
Labour would win Reading, Slough and Earley and Woodley.
The prediction depends on whether the boundary changes are implemented or not.
The changes could benefit Alok Sharma, the Conservative MP for Reading West: last week, an Election Maps UK prediction suggested he would lose his seat to Labour.
Electoral Calculus implies he would win with a majority of 3,678 votes.
Wokingham borough councillor for the Bulmershe and Whitegates seat, which would be part of the new Earley and Woodley constituency, said: “The proposed new constituency of Earley and Woodley (which will also include Shinfield and Whitley) looks set to be a Labour-Conservative marginal according to the Electoral Calculus.
“The website calculates if a vote were held today, there would be a Labour majority of less than 1,000 votes over the Conservatives – 18,300 against 17,400, with the Liberal Democrats trailing in in third place with fewer than 8,000 votes.”
He added that the website assumed the new constituency will have the same form as the proposals made by the Boundary Commission for England (BCE).
“The new boundaries will come into effect from mid to late 2023,” Cllr Croy said. “Depending on the timing of the next general election, the election could be fought on the current boundaries or the new boundaries.”
According to a wider Electoral Calculus prediction, Labour would win 393 seats and the Conservatives would get 101 if Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Greens cooperated.
