Erica Townend, author of The Wokingham Property Blog, reflects on the UK’s decision to vote to leave the European Union and what it means for the local property market
It’s 5.50am as I start to type this article and David Dimbleby has just announced the UK will be leaving the EU as the final votes are counted.
As most of the polls suggested a Remain Vote, it came as a surprise to most people, including the City. The Pound dropped 6% this morning after the City Whizz kids got their predictions wrong and M’s from the Remain camp are using words like “challenging times ahead”.
… and now the vote has been made .. what next for the 13,922 Wokingham homeowners especially those 7,498 Wokingham homeowners with a mortgage?
The Chancellor in the campaign suggested property prices would drop by 18%. Using Treasury estimates, their method of calculating this was tenuous at best, but focused around the abrupt and hasty increase in UK interest rates, which in turn would raise the cost of mortgages, and therefore lower demand for property, causing a drop in property prices.… and I would say, yes .. that may in part happen.
Wokingham Property Values
Wokingham property values will probably drop in the coming 12 to 18 months – but by 18% – I am sorry I find that a little pessimistic and believe that figure was rhetoric to get homeowners and landlords to vote in a particular way. But the UK property market is quite a monster.
Since the last In/Out EU Referendum in June 1975, property values in Wokingham have risen by 2,256.2%
(That isn’t a typo!) and while property prices did drop nationally by 18.7% between the peak of 2007 and bottom of the market in 2009, when one compares property values today UK-wide compared to that all-time high of 2007, (the period before the financial crisis of the Credit Crunch of 2008/9) … they are still 10.14% higher since that all time high in 2007.
Another Credit Crunch?
And so, notwithstanding the Credit Crunch – the worst global economic outlook since the 1930s and the recession it brought us, a matter of a few years later – the Government were panicking in 2012/3/4 that the housing market was a runaway train.
Now, the same Credit Crunch doom mongers and soothsayers that predicted soup kitchens in 2008/9 are predicting Brexit meltdown. Bad news sells newspapers. Stock markets may rise, stock markets may fall, yet the British public continued to buy property in 2009/10 and beyond.
Aspiring first time buyers and buy-to-let landlords dusted themselves down, took a deep breath and carried on buying… because we Brits love our Bricks and Mortar.
We need a roof over our head!
However, as mentioned previously, in the past when the value of the pound dropped, interest rates rose to reverse that drop. While a cheaper pound will make your pint of Sangria a little more expensive on your Spanish holiday this year and make your brand new BMW pricier .. it will make British export cheaper! Which is great for the economy.
Interest rates
… and what of interest rates?
Since 2009, interest rates have been at 0.5% and lots of people have become accustomed to those sorts of levels. So what if interest rates rise .. end of the world?
Interest rates in the 1986/88 property boom were on average 9.25%, the 1990’s they were on average around 6.5% and uber-boom years (when UK property values were rising by 20% a year for three or four straight years across the UK) .. 4.5%.
Many of you reading this who are in their 50’s and older will remember interest rates at 15%.
But I suspect interest rates won’t rise that much anyway, as Matt Carney (Chief of the Bank Of England) knows, raising interest rates causes deflation – which is the last thing the British economy needs at the moment.
In fact they have been printing money (aka Quantitative Easing) for the last few years (which causes inflation) to the tune of £375bn a month. A bit of inflation because the pound has slipped on the money markets (not too much mind you) might be a good thing?
You see, while property values might drop in the country, they will bounce back.
It’s only a paper loss.. because it only becomes real if you sell. And if you have to sell, again as most people move up market when they sell, whilst your property might have dropped by 5% or 10%, the one you want to buy would have dropped by the same 5% to 10% .. and here is the best part – (and work your sums out) you could actually be better off because the more expensive property you would be purchasing would have come down in value (in actual pound notes) than the one you are selling.
The 4,701 Wokingham buy-to-let landlords have nothing to fear either, nor do the 3,862 tenants living in their properties.
Buy-to-let is a long term investment. I think there might even be some buy-to-let bargains in the coming months as some people, irrespective of evidence, panic.
Even if we pull up the drawbridge at Dover and immigration stopped today, the British population will still increase at a rate that will exceed the current property building level. Britain is building 139,600 properties a year, but needs, according to the eminent ‘Barker Review of Housing Supply Report’, to build about 250,000 properties a year to even stand still.
And as the birth rate is increasing, the population is living longer and just under a quarter of all UK households now are occupied by a single person, so demand is only going up whilst supply is stifled. Greater demand than supply equals higher prices. That is definitely a fact.
So, what will happen next?
Well, there are many challenges ahead. The country has spoken and we are now in unchartered territory – but we have been through a couple of World Wars, an Oil Crisis, Black Monday, Black Wednesday, 15% interest rates and a Credit Crunch … and we survived!
And the value of your Wokingham property? It might have a short term wobble… but in the long term – it’s safe as houses.
For more thought-provoking commentary on the Wokingham property market – please visit the Wokingham Property Blog – www.wokinghampropertyblog.co.uk
Erica Townend is a director and co-owner of the Martin & Co estate agency in Wokingham and has been aligned closely to the world of property for almost 20 years. Opinions express in this column are her own.
