KING Charles III’s coronation is set to take place with plenty of sunshine and no rain, if historical weather trends are anything to go by.
The landmark occasion is just under a fortnight away but the weather may have a significant bearing on the number of people who turn out to catch a glimpse of the King making his way to Westminster Abbey.
Dr Stephen Burt, from the University of Reading’s Department of Meteorology, has analysed what the weather has been doing on May 6, in years gone by.
His findings are based on the university’s records, which span as far back as 1908 for temperatures and rainfall, from 1956 for sunshine, and taking the 30-year averages 1991-2020.
Dr Burt said: “The mean daily maximum temperature on 6 May averages 16.9 degrees celsius, a little cooler than the May average as it’s early in the month. Temperatures on the date have ranged from just 9.2 degrees celsius, in 1932, to 25.5 degrees celsius, in 1995. The chance of 20 degrees celsius is about one in four.
“The daily average for sunshine on May 6, is 6.8 hours, a little higher than May’s average of 6.4 hours. In 2020, 14 hours of sunshine was recorded – making this the sunniest date May 6 on our records. There was zero sunshine on May 6, 1962.
“On May 6, 11 days in 30 years had 9 hours or more sunshine, six of those 12 hours or more. So the chances of nine hours of sunshine are better than one in three.
“On May 6 in 30 years, seven days had 25% or less cloud cover, and 8 days were completely cloudy.”
The average rainfall for this date is just 0.8mm, below the May average of 1.4mm per day. Exactly half of the 30 years remained completely dry, with only nine years receiving 0.2mm or more.
The date has received more than 10mm on only one occasion, back in 1925. Only twice in the past 30 years has 5mm fallen.
No snow or sleet has fallen on May 6, and only two years in 30 recorded thunderstorms.
“Last year, May 6, saw a maximum temperature of 21.0 °C, a minimum of 7.7 °C, 0.8 mm of rainfall and 7.2 hours of sunshine,” Dr Burt explained.
“Based purely on climatology, we might expect a dry and fairly sunny day that is a little on the cool side. It is important to be clear that this is not a forecast as such – that will have to wait for a little closer to the date itself as weather forecast models have little reliability that far ahead.
“We should have a fairly good feel for how the day will shape up from around four to five days beforehand.”
