Wokingham borough’s World Health Organisation Covid-19 expert doubts that the new lockdown will be enough.
At the beginning of February, Professor Ben Cowling from Sonning predicted the start of a UK Covid-19 epidemic by early March. There were just two cases reported here at the time but he was proved right.
As England’s second lockdown began last Thursday he said: “I doubt a one-month lockdown will be enough, case numbers will still go up for the next two weeks, because of delays between infection, illness onset, and laboratory confirmation.
“By the end of November daily incidence will come back down.”
The current lockdown is due to finish on December 2.
Professor Cowling, 40, who went to primary school in Sonning where his family still lives, added: “I am not sure whether the lockdown will be extended to include Christmas, but I would expect social distancing measures will be in place for much of this winter.”
He was speaking before news was released this week about the vaccine being developed by Pfizer and BioNTec. Early results show it could prevent more than 90% from getting Covid.
Professor Cowling said: “I think our best hope is a vaccine and we are hoping for some good news very soon from the Oxford University vaccine and some of the other vaccine candidates.
“If we could begin administering vaccines in early 2021 it would be the light at the end of the tunnel.”
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the news was an important step but there were no guarantees.
He said the NHS would be ready from December to roll out the vaccine if it was approved.
Prof Cowling is Director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control in Hong Kong.
