Wokingham borough’s Covid-19 expert, just honoured by the Queen, has warned of dramatic increases in covid cases in the next few weeks.
And his predictions come days after the borough recorded its 10,000th case over the weekend.
World Health Organisation professor Ben Cowling had previously predicted the extent of the pandemic in the UK, ahead of the first lockdown and has continued to offer analysis of the pandemic.
This week, he urged people to continue to cover their noses and mouths after they’re no longer required to by law.
“Although it is uncomfortable, I would urge people to continue to wear face masks in crowded indoor areas for their own safety and the safety of others around them,” he said.
This should be for “at least for the next few weeks when covid case numbers are expected to increase dramatically, probably to a similar level as last winter.”
He said: “Face masks can reduce transmission, but as we have seen in Asia even high use of face masks will not completely stop transmission, it will only reduce transmission to a certain extent”.
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Prof Cowling’s studies on how face masks can help stop viruses being passed on have had worldwide impact. The article about his studies, published in prestigious Nature magazine, was one of the most read articles in the world in 2020.
The law requiring face coverings in shops, public transport and other enclosed public spaces in England will be replaced with government guidance. This move is controversial, with some authorities, including London Transport, requiring face coverings.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said the government “expects and recommends” that face coverings are worn in crowded and enclosed spaces.
Asked if, in his experience, people followed guidance as much as the law, Prof Cowling told Wokingham Today: “I would expect less compliance with guidelines compared to legal requirements”.
Asked if England was lifting restrictions too early, when the Delta virus was spreading quickly and when not everyone was vaccinated, he said: “I think it’s a difficult call because maintaining stricter measures for another one or two months might not ultimately make a lot of difference to the size of the third wave, and would push the third wave deeper into the winter.
“When analysing policies we have to consider all of the options, and the pros and cons of each option.”
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Professor Cowling, director of the WHO Collaborating Centre in Hong Kong, was made a Member of the Order of the British Empire in the Queen’s April honours list. The award was for “services to public health and to research on Covid-19.”
Read more: Academic articles can, perhaps surprisingly, make easy, fascinating reading, particularly if you keep to the summary or similar.
You can read about Professor Cowling’s work on face masks in the following articles:
