A CLIMATE scientist at the University of Reading (UoR) has updated the scale of a world-famous graphic demonstrating the increasing global temperature as 2023 is thought to be the warmest year on record.
Ed Hawkins, professor of Climate Science in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at UoR, has updated the colour scale for his climate stripes graph for the first time.
It shows the change in climate across the globe by showing annual temperatures visualised as shades of blue and red, with red representing the hottest years.
Now Professor Hawkins has published the first update of the graphic with interim data for 2023, after the Met Office confirmed it would be the hottest on record for parts of the UK
Last year was the second hottest for the UK as a whole, and the hottest ever seen in Wales and Northern Ireland.
This means that the darkest shade of red used in the graphic’s scale will need to be used, and the continued rise in global temperatures will require a “whole new colour” to express the extent of climate change graphically.
Professor Hawkins said: “When 2023 is confirmed as the warmest global year on record by a wide margin the darkest shade of red will not tell the full story.
“The colours used in the climate stripes are based on a scale designed to show which years are warmer and cooler than the average–2023 was off the end of the scale.”
“This was always going to happen at some point, given the continued increase in global greenhouse gases, and is in line with what scientists have been predicting for decades, but the margin of record-breaking in 2023 has still been a surprise.”
Professor Hawkins created the graphic by analysing temperature data dating back to 1850, using the average period between 1971-2000 as a benchmark.
It has been seen at the United Nations and Glastonbury Festival, as well as making appearances on the cliffs at Dover, Envision Racing’s new Formula E car, and on the CN tower in Toronto, Canada.
Professor Hawkins explained: “The climate stripes are all about starting conversations about climate change, and 2024 has to be the year we turn conversations into faster action.
“The good news is that we already have many of the solutions we need. We now need bold, transformative change across all parts of society to make our planet’s climate safer for current and future generations.”
The Met Office also noted in its report that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is at its highest for at least two million years.
Each of the last four decades has been warmer than any previous decade since 1850, and all 10 of the warmest years since 1884 have occurred in the last two decades.
Senior scientist at The Met Office Mike Kendon said: “The observations of the UK climate are clear. Climate change is influencing UK temperature records over the long term, with 2023 going down as another very warm year and the second warmest on record.
“Had the 2023 value occurred during the 20th Century, it would have been, by far, the warmest year on record.”
He explained: “While our climate will remain variable, with periods of cold and wet weather, what we have observed over recent decades is a number of high-temperature records tumbling.
“We expect this pattern to continue as our climate continues to change in the coming years as a result of human-induced climate change.”
More information about temperature data collected by the Met Office is available via: metoffice.gov.uk
