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Analysis of the results after Lib Dems take five seats from Conservatives
WOKINGHAM’S electorate has spoken, and the council is no longer under a Conservative majority.
The party now has 26 seats, one short of success.
Over the past seven years, the situation has changed from a Blue Wall of near solid Conservative seats to one where the Lib Dems are now in touching distance of having full control.
Elsewhere, Labour saw Andy Croy reinstated as councillor in Bulmershe and Whitegates. In its neighbouring ward of Loddon, they came within touching distance of victor, Conservative Bill Soane, and Cllr Rachel Burgess, its group leader, retained her seat in Norreys.
The only party not to make serious inroads is the Greens, and if they want to be a greater presence, mirroring their newly minted status as the official opposition in neighbouring Reading, then they collectively need to do more to make themselves known to the electorate.
In every election Wokingham Today has covered, the party has been all but invisible and this needs to change if they want votes.
Greens aside, Wokingham’s political map is being redrawn.
What could be behind it?
Before the election, BBC Radio 4’s PM programme came to Wokingham to try and find out.
Host Evan Davis interviewed politicians from all sides of the political spectrum, as well as myself as the editor of Wokingham Today.
I told him that essentially issues in Wokingham came down to peace, bread and land. Those of you who know their history, know that this is the slogan Lenin used to garner support in his Russian revolution: if the people have all three measures, they are content.
But you can argue, Wokingham’s residents are revolting.
Much has been made in the past few years of the sheer amount of housing being forced upon us. Every party leader says enough is enough, and every party leader has been trying to convince Westminster to do something about it.
However, as I pointed out to Evan, Theresa May is one of Wokingham’s four MPs, and when she was prime minister, she could not do anything.
The 2019 general election saw all national parties promise to build more homes across the country, and Wokingham’s share would have doubled to 1,600. A consultation of Wokingham residents saw a call for the numbers to be reduced.
But even our 800 a year is still too high, and the draft local plan currently being consulted on is trying to build homes on flood plain land in a bid to satisfy the whims of Whitehall.
Land is clearly an issue, wherever you live in the borough.
Aside from housing, Wokingham is, like much of the country going through some turbulent times. After two years of covid, the cost-of-living crisis is here – the bread part of the equation.
People are struggling with the rising cost of energy, central government tax increases, and council tax rises.
While council tax is a stick that all parties use to beat the others with, it should be noted that a large part of the annual near 5% increases in recent years is because central government has dropped the support grant it sends to councils – Wokingham being the lowest funded local authority in the country – and forcing councils to find the money for running its social care services, demand for which is constantly increasing.
And peace? Well, a little stretching the envelope – leaving aside the threat of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine – the pandemic has seen us all face challenges. Covid is still with us, and there are global pressures too.
Before the election, Cllr Halsall argued that with stormy waters ahead, it was no time for the electorate to change captain.
By electing five new Lib Dems, residents have said otherwise.
But who will run the council going forward? That is an interesting question.
The Conservatives can try and run a minority administration. With one short of a majority, they can gamble that at least one opposition councillor will miss votes at council meetings, so their business can be passed.
They could seek to elect a mayor from the opposition benches, which would then give them a notional majority, although the mayor would have a casting vote.
Another option is a confidence and supply coalition with the independents, where they choose to support or not each issue as they arise. Whether freshly re-elected former Conservative Gary Cowan, or Jim Frewin, who was elected over constant house building in Shinfield, will want to serve in this way remains to be seen.
But just one of them could be kingmaker.
The Lib Dems, under leader – and parliamentary candidate for Wokingham – Cllr Clive Jones, could also seek to run a minority administration, asking Labour to lend support from its three councillors.
The chamber would be tied under this scenario, but with the support of independents and if the mayor is from the Conservative benches and remains impartial, this could be the way forward.
In the general election of 2010, Labour could have sought to govern with the help of other parties, despite being the second-largest party. But the Lib Dems instead talked to the Conservatives, giving them a majority. It was, at the time, a move that surprised many. Nick Clegg, the party’s then leader, was seen as a rising star, and went on to become deputy prime minister.
What similar bold move will take place ahead of the annual council meeting on Thursday, May 19?
The borough has spoken, now it awaits
